Yuan debate overcomes Boao boredom factor

China's President Hu Jintao travels to Washington this week to attend the nuclear summit.

On the southern Chinese island of Hainan, where 2,000 business leaders, senior politicians and academics have been meeting, the consensus was that his decision to go showed the relationship between the two nations is on the mend after a difficult few months.

The Boao Forum for Asia, an annual event, can feel a little sterile.

But it attracts big names. Former US treasury secretary Henry Paulson was here. Xi Jingping, the man touted as China's next leader gave the keynote address.

However, there is little of the cut and thrust of debate you might find at similar events in other countries and much of the discussion takes place away from the eyes of the media.

The conference organisers make no apologies for this.

'Bit boring'

Asians are more cautious, more conservative than those in the West they argue, and in China, the company chief executives and senior politicians are only going to speak freely if they know they're not going to be quoted.

At the gala dinner, the tables set out on a golf course as pristine as any, one delegate from overseas admitted that some of it had been "a bit boring".

The real value of Boao though was, he said, the access you got to important Chinese and Asian figures in business and politics as they relax here in the bars, over lunch or on the links.

And certainly outside the halls and meeting rooms where the formal events were taking place the delegates, both Chinese and international, were more forthcoming.

The question of whether Beijing should abandon its currency's de facto dollar peg was getting a lot attention.

"There's no perfect time for this," said Chen Zhiwu, professor of finance at Yale School of Management. "But I predict within one to two weeks something will be announced."

GDP figures

China's economy has recovered faster, and more strongly than almost any other.

First quarter GDP figures due out this week are expected to show growth of more than 11% year on year.

Washington has told Beijing repeatedly that with growth like that the time has come to allow its currency to start appreciating again.

The yuan rose in value by 21% over three years to mid-2008, but the process was halted when the financial crisis hit.

Professor Chen says a debate between different ministries in Beijing, with the commerce ministry pushing for the 'peg' to be kept to help exporters, while the central bank and others argue for a gradual appreciation, has held up the decision.

But that debate within government is now over he believes.

"The Chinese media have been changing their tone, and that implicitly tells us the official policy is going to switch," he said.

He was booked to discuss the issue on the state controlled TV network CCTV he explains, but then a few days ago the subject was changed.

"Usually given how things are done in China that means the propaganda department wanted to put a stop to it. There's less room for discussion because the government has decided, so they don't want different opinions to be aired in the official media."

'Polite'

Chi Schive, the chairman of Taiwan's stock exchange had another explanation for the time it's taken to see a move from China on this issue.

"There is a difference between Eastern and Western culture," he said. "Over there [in the West] if you are not doing the right thing people just tell you you're wrong."

"In Chinese culture, we prefer to try to be polite to everyone. So it took time for the United States to realise how to deal with this, to play it down, to say 'I'm not pushing you, I'm wishing you to change your policy'."

Most here agreed that politicising the issue had been a mistake.

'Improved' relations

The most senior member of the Obama administration to turn up for the Forum was Robert Hormatz, an Under Secretary of State.

He refused to be drawn on the specifics of the currency debate, but did insist that the bilateral relationship had "improved significantly" over the last few weeks.

This was due to the fact that both sides had recognised that "frictions were developing that we couldn't afford to have," he said.

With several meetings scheduled between the two country's presidents over the next few weeks at different global summits "this was a moment to get control of these issues, address them and make sure they don't get out of hand".

'Value chain'

The economic arguments for appreciation appeared to have been accepted by many of the Chinese delegates here.

Zhang Xin, a real estate tycoon said she believed a flexible Chinese currency "was in the interests of the country".

"Putting aside the politics of the US and China, the appreciation of the yuan will ultimately help the Chinese economy grow into a higher 'value added' economy, no longer just competing by cutting prices but moving up the 'value chain'," she said.

But she had a warning for those politicians in the United States and others who have been pressing China on this issue - be careful what you wish for.

"Say their wish is granted. The currency is significantly stronger. Then you will face a much richer Chinese people, a much stronger China. Is that in the interests of the United States?"

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Are cracks emerging in Thailand's military?

When a prime minister needs to hold a special TV broadcast to assure watchers that his government is united and in control, it is often the opposite message that is conveyed.

Far from celebrating Songkran, the Thai New Year, Thailand's top generals and politicians are locked in dissension - trying to explain the failure and high cost of Saturday's crackdown on the red-shirted opposition, and trying to work out what should happen next.

The relatively dove-like commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Gen Anupong Paojinda, seemed in no doubt.

"The best solution of this is to dissolve the House. I don't want to intervene in politics but I guess the end will be a House dissolution.

"Political problems must be solved by political means. House dissolution is a solution but that must be done after a clear time-frame is set."

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, by contrast, insisted his government, the army, the police and his coalition partners were united and doing "good co-operative work".

He said his government was investigating the causes of the killings on Saturday night - the latest toll is 21 dead and almost 900 people injured.

He also put forward the idea that among the peaceful demonstrations was a hard core of "terrorists" who had to be distinguished from the "innocents".

'Badly planned'

That idea - of a mysterious "third hand" - usually accuses a wayward major general of provoking violence through unexplained grenade tossings or shootings.

Certainly various military figures - and soldiers interviewed as they recovered in hospital - say they were unprepared for an armed force among the protesters.

The military analyst, Wassana Nanuam, writing in the Bangkok Post, quoted unnamed colonels as saying the crackdown had been badly planned, badly timed and put tired soldiers at the mercy of protesters.

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said he had issued orders for soldiers to be equipped only with shields, batons and tear gas.

"They were unarmed, so some of them were killed," he said.

This conflicts with reports from a BBC correspondent on the scene who saw soldiers carrying and shooting high velocity guns.

Behind the propaganda war lies the larger issue of the military's distress about where it now finds itself.

"There are some divisions in the armed forces," said Prof Surachart Bumrungsuk, a military and politics expert at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

"Some units don't want to be involved in such a crackdown, others wanted it to be more assertive.

"It is no secret that General Prayuth Chan-ocha would have liked a harder crackdown," he said.

Gen Prayuth is the deputy armed forces commander and supposedly in line to take the top army job after Gen Anupong's retirement in September.

That transition could be derailed if a military-friendly government is no longer in place to oversee it.

"Gen Anupong has kept a relatively low profile since the 2006 coup and steered clear of the crackdown by his subordinates against the pro-reds governments in 2008," notes Prof Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a visiting scholar at Stanford University's Centre on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law.

"In April 2009 during the reds' uprising, he was nominally in charge but Gen Prayuth appeared effectively in command of dispersing the red protesters.

"Gen Anupong's conciliatory words this time are thus unsurprising. He understandably wants a soft landing after his mandatory retirement on 30 September," he said.

By contrast, Gen Prayuth and the "tiger soldiers", otherwise known as the "eastern tigers" - the 2nd, 12th and the 21st infantry divisions - are seen as more hardline.

"Dissension in the army stems from resentment against these privileged soldiers whose career mobility is more promising. It would be unsurprising if other army units would oppose Gen Prayuth's hard-line approach," believes Prof Thitinan.

There is also a new concern within the military, not of division at the top but of a divorce between the top brass and the ordinary soldiers.

"The fear on Friday was that they might lose control of the rank and file. That was new, and very, very frightening [and contributed to] the stupid, chaotic blood-letting on Saturday," says political analyst Chris Baker.

Limited options

Where this leaves Mr Abhisit remains the question as Thailand heads into Songkran, normally a week of water-throwing street parties.

Many analysts believe he is running out of options.

"If he persists in his smug defiance, more violence and mayhem can be expected," said Prof Thitinan.

"His best bet is to set up an expeditious election timetable and bow out, perhaps followed by a sojourn abroad for rehabilitation."

Certainly the deep divisions in Thai society - the military included - are not going away.

"Saturday night made it clear that there are elements within the military providing the opposition with tactical information and that on the other side of the divide there are elements with good military training and equipment," says Anthony Davis, an analyst with Janes Defence Weekly.

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'World needs a barometer of life'

The world needs a "barometer of life" to prevent ecosystems and species being lost forever, scientists have warned.

Existing schemes, they said, did not include enough species from groups such as fungi and invertebrates to provide a detailed picture of what is at risk.

Writing in the journal Science, the researchers said the barometer would increase the number of species being assessed from almost 48,000 to 160,000.

The data would help identify areas in need of urgent action, they added.

The article was penned by four leading figures in conservation, including Harvard University's Edward O Wilson and Simon Stuart, chairman of the International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) Species Survival Commission (SSC).

"Knowledge about species and extinction rates remains very poor, and species disappear before we know they existed," they wrote.

To date, about 1.9m species have been described and given scientific names, but the actual number may exceed 10m.

"As scientists are better able to assess the conservation status of the species that compose an ecosystem, the more they will understand the health of that ecosystem," they continued.

"It is time to accelerate taxanomy and scientific natural history, two of the most vital but neglected disciplines of biology."

Broader coverage

Currently, the most authoritative data on the status of at-risk species is the IUCN Red List, which has been assessing the conservation status of species around the globe for more than 40 years.

Dr Stuart, who oversees the compilation of the Red List, said it provided a good insight to the health of certain ecosystems, such as forests.

"But it is very weak in its coverage of freshwater, marine and arid land species," he told BBC News.

"There are a lot of additional species that we have to bring into the Red List."

At the moment, it evaluates almost 48,000 species, but it is acknowledged that there is a bias towards higher vertebrates, which include mammals, birds and reptiles.

"The barometer would broaden the reach of the Red List to make it representative of all life, that's what it's all about," Dr Stuart explained.

The authors hope that broadening the taxanomic base of the Red List and increasing the database to 160,000 species would deliver practical benefits.

"A representative barometer would provide a solid basis for informing decisions globally," the authors suggested.

"For example, on conservation planning, resource allocation, environmental impact assessments, monitoring biodiversity trends... and enabling countries to develop national-level biodiversity indicators."

'Not acceptable'

The authors, all of whom are leading figures in their field, decided to join forces in order to voice their concerns that the rate of progress was too slow.

"The amount that we are investing at the moment in the Red List to broaden its coverage means that it would take about 20 years to get there," Dr Stuart observed.

"At a time when everything on the planet is deteriorating, having to wait 20 years before we can measure everything properly is not acceptable."

However, the scientists acknowledge that a three-fold increase in the number of species regularly monitored by a global network of biologists would come at a price - an estimated US $60m (£39m).

But they argued: "The barometer would, from an economic perspective, be one of the best investments for the good of humanity."

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Rio Tinto joins BHP and Vale to end annual ore pricing

Rio Tinto has followed rival mining firms and says it is negotiating new iron ore supply contracts priced for three months rather than a year.

The move ends years of tradition and is seen as a demonstration of the power the miners have over their customers.

Demand is at record levels, especially from China, whose appetite for ore and other commodities continues to grow.

Last month, BHP Billiton and Vale agreed quarterly contracts with some Asian steel mills.

Japan and South Korea seem to have accepted the change, but China's position is less certain.

China has been strongly opposed to a move to shorter-term pricing, which exposes it to price rises over the year.

However, Brian Redican, chief economist at Macquarie bank in Australia, said: "The shortage of iron ore means if the Chinese won't sign up to fixed prices at the quarterly rate they will be forced to buy it on the open market where prices are about 15%-20% higher.

"It would be cutting off its nose to spite its face."

The old yearly pricing system caused huge friction. When the spot - open market - price fell significantly below the annual price, customers complained, and when it rose above the set price, it was the miners that were unhappy.

The most recently struck contracts are, on average, priced 100% higher than last year's prices.

Last month, four Rio Tinto executives were jailed after being found guilty of bribery and stealing secrets by a Chinese court.

One of the four - Australian national Stern Hu - had been Rio Tinto's lead negotiator in talks with Chinese steel mills to try to settle a price for China to buy iron ore from Australian mining companies.

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Pret a Manger plans more shop openings as sales rise

Sandwich and salads chain Pret a Manger has reported rising sales and said it plans to open a record number of new outlets this year.

Its comments came as it reported a 12% rise in overall sales for 2009. When sales from new stores were excluded, like-for-like sales increased 2.6%.

Pret opened 16 new shops last year, including its first in Washington DC.

It said it would take advantage of "favourable property markets" to open a record number of new stores this year.

Its international trade is growing in importance, with 23 outlets currently in New York.

In total, Pret a Manger has 232 shops, the majority in the south of England.

It describes its heartland as London, where it did particularly well towards the end of last year.

Pret markets itself as an healthier, more ethically-sourced alternative to other fast-food outlets.

Its best-selling sandwich is the super Club, with two million of these sold in 2009.

The company said it has had an encouraging start to the year, but said it would keep a cautious view of the global economic environment.

Its owner, Bridgepoint, has a wide range of businesses. including clothing retailer Fat Face and Leeds Bradford International Airport.

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Dorset's fierce political battleground

The land of Thomas Hardy is blessed with a wonderful climate and beautiful countryside.

Two good reasons so many people like to move there to retire.

But Dorset is about a lot more than pensioners and agriculture - it is a land of fierce battles and surprises.

Dorset South - home to the Bovington Tank Museum - has been the scene of some ferocious contests.

The seat is currently held by the Labour MP, and cabinet minister, Jim Knight.

Through the Thatcher years it was a Tory stronghold but the election of 1997 put the constituency on a knife-edge. Labour finally tipped it over with a majority of just 153 in 2001.

Doctored literature

At the next election, Conservative hopes of winning it back drained away when their candidate was pilloried for doctored election literature.

But this time they are back with a vengeance with candidate Richard Drax and Labour will have to fight hard to hang on.

Of the eight MPs elected in the county six are Conservatives.

North Dorset is a rural constituency, centred on the county town, Shaftesbury.

There's a tradition of Liberal Democrat challenge, this time from Emily Gasson, but Robert Walter has held back the tide with a majority of about 3,000 for the last three elections.

In West Dorset, leading Conservative Oliver Letwin has also had to campaign hard to beat the Lib Dems and his majority of 2,461 means he is still a target and Lib Dem candidate Susan Farrant could come through.

The Lib Dems did manage to break through in Mid Dorset and North Poole in 2001.

MP Annette Brooke increased her majority from 681 to 5,482 votes at the last election - against the general trend - but with a new Conservative contender, Nick King, this will be another to watch.

The Dorset motto is "Who's a'feard?". With these small majorities, you would think all of the local politicians are.

Control of local authorities has swung backwards and forwards but they have been united in crying foul over their grant settlement from local government.

Employment has remained above average and land values in places like Sandbanks are equivalent to Mayfair in London.

But the consequence of this is that public services find they receive relatively less support from central government.

As the lowest funded authority in the country per head of population, how to get more from social services, education and roads are all live issues in Dorset.

Bournemouth and Poole is one of the largest urban areas in the South West.

Control of the two unitary authorities has swung from Lib Dem to Conservative in recent years, but of the three Conservative-held parliamentary seats Bournemouth West, where MP John Butterfill is stepping down, sees the greatest Labour vote.

Finally, Christchurch. Apart from the distinction of having the greatest number of voting pensioners in the country, the volatility of the region is shown by the astonishing by-election swing of 35% achieved by Lib Dem Diana Maddock in 1993.

However, it did not last and Conservative Christopher Chope now sits on a majority of 15,500.

More evidence of the changeable nature of Dorset politics.

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The candidates standing for election so far in Bournemouth East are: Tobias Ellwood (Con), David Stokes (Lab), Lisa Northover (Lib Dem) David Hughes (UKIP), David Shaw (Independent).

The candidates standing for election so far in Bournemouth West are: Conor Burns (Con), Sharon Carr-Brown (Lab), Alasdair Murray (Lib Dem), Phillip Glover (UKIP), Harvey Taylor (Independent).

The candidates standing for election so far in Christchurch are: Christopher Chope (Con), Robert Deeks (Labour), Martyn Hurll (Lib Dem).

The candidates standing for election so far in Mid Dorset and North Poole are: Annette Brooke (Lib Dem), Nick King (Con), Darren Brown (Labour), Dave Evans (UKIP).

The candidates standing for election so far in North Dorset are: Robert Walter (Con), Mike Bunney (Labour), Emily Gasson (Lib Dem), Anna Hayball (Green), Jeremy Nieboer (UKIP).

The candidates standing for election so far in Poole are: Robert Syms (Con), Philip Eades (Lib Dem), Jason Sanderson (Lab), David Williams (UKIP).

The candidates standing for election so far in South Dorset are: Jim Knight (Lab), Richard Drax (Con), Rosamond Kayes (Lib Dem), Brian Heatley (Green).

The candidates standing for election so far in West Dorset are: Oliver Letwin (Con), Susan Farrant (Lib Dem), Steve Bick (Lab), J. Susan Greene (Green).

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Conservatives outline £12bn public sector savings plan

The Tories have outlined for the first time how public spending could be cut by £12bn - to help fund their pledge to curb the rise in National Insurance.

Tory adviser Sir Peter Gershon said spending on IT projects, office costs, contracts and recruitment could be cut.

Conservative leader David Cameron said it showed the savings, which Labour say are a "fantasy", were "deliverable".

Asked if it could mean 40,000 public jobs lost, he said hiring freezes, not job cuts, would be used to save money.

In Friday's other election developments:

• Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg says his party would stop excessive bank charges for people who go overdrawn
• Labour's Lord Adonis makes a bid for Lib Dem voters' support
• Facebook and the Electoral Commission team up to register voters
• A Labour candidate is sacked for "offensive" comments about Nick Clegg and David Cameron on his Twitter page
• Gordon Brown campaigns alongside the mother of a murder victim whose killer was caught thanks to the DNA database

'Back of envelope'

Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling and Lord Mandelson launched a fierce attack on Conservative claims they could save £12bn through "efficiency savings" within a year of the election - suggesting they were based on "back-of-envelope" calculations.

Sir Peter, a former government adviser now leading the Tories' efficiency review, told the Financial Times that £9.5bn could be saved from cutting IT costs, renegotiating contracts as well as curbing consultants and "perhaps £1bn to £2bn" could be saved by curbing recruitment.

Conservative leader Mr Cameron told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "It is do-able, it is deliverable, I don't think it's particularly challenging to ask government to save £1 out of every £100 it spends.

Mr Cameron was asked about suggestions the plans could mean job losses of up to 40,000.

He said: "It's not talking about people losing their jobs, it's talking about not filling vacancies as they arise."

He said Sir Peter had outlined areas that could be cut - but a Tory government would make changes "along the lines of" what he had suggested, in consultation with the Treasury.

'Back office'

"The exact balance between things like procurement, recruitment and IT should be decided calmly and reasonably with the Treasury if we are elected on 6 May."

He said about 400,000 jobs became available in the public sector each year as people leave: "The point is, if you don't fill all jobs as they become available, that's one way of saving money relatively rapidly."

He said not replacing "back office" and management jobs meant more money could be saved for the front line and denied it was a "plan to fire people".

Gordon Brown has dismissed the Conservatives' plans to save £12bn as built on a "myth" and Chancellor Alistair Darling said some of the savings had already been made by the government.

Mr Darling added: "It is now clear from [David Cameron's] interview on Today - and he was unable to deny this - that additional heavy cuts will have to be made in public sector spending and jobs from this year onwards and that tens of thousands of jobs will be lost, not just in the public sector but in the private sector as well, where they depend on government contracts."

He told the BBC: "They may have got the political tactics right for the first day or so but their overall judgement is just plain wrong."

'Salami slicing'

Lib Dem Treasury spokesman Vince Cable said it appeared Sir Peter Gershon was "looking to immediately slash employment throughout the public sector".

He said: "The Tories are guilty of the worst type of salami slicing - cutting with no regard for what is useful or wasteful spending."

On Friday the Tories are outlining plans to curb excessive public sector pay and to strip some payments from those repeatedly caught committing benefit fraud.

The Lib Dems have pledged to stop banks charging customers unfairly for going over their limit or bouncing a cheque and capping interest rates charged by credit cards and store cards.

And Labour are highlighting the role of the DNA database - the Tories oppose keeping the DNA of people arrested for minor offences but not charged.

Joined by the mother of murdered model Sally Ann Bowman, whose killer was caught after his DNA was taken during a pub brawl, Gordon Brown said: "The use of DNA helps the police put the most dangerous criminals behind bars but can also exonerate the innocent."

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